July PCE: Fed’s favored inflation gauge remained elevated

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The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed that inflationary pressures remained elevated in July, as the central bank mulls an interest rate cut at its meeting next month.

The Commerce Department on Friday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.2% from a month ago in July and remained at 2.6% on a year-over-year basis, in line with the expectations of economists polled by LSEG.

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.9% from a year ago, both in line with economists’ estimates.

Federal Reserve policymakers are focusing on the PCE headline figure as they try to bring inflation back to their long-run target of 2%, though they view core data as a better indicator of inflation. Headline PCE remained flat at 2.6% in July from the prior month, while core PCE ticked up from 2.8% to 2.9% – the highest level since February.

Prices for goods were up 0.5% in July from the same month a year ago, with durable goods prices up 1.1% and nondurable goods up just 0.2%.

Services prices were 3.6% higher in July when compared with last year, up slightly from the 3.5% reading in June.

Wages and salaries rose 0.6% in July from the prior month, which comes as a rebound after June saw a 0.1% increase that was the slowest monthly growth since at least November.

The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.4%, unchanged from the prior month.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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